Earlier this year I posted a couple of items discussing how information technology seems to cycle through complex-complicated-simple-chaotic as a new capability moves from (a) a one-of-a-kind monolithic structure to (b) a partially decoupled structure to (c) a commoditized fully decoupled structure which then (d) provides a chaotic swirl of standardized components that are then used to create a brand new capability with a monolithic structure (Techno-Apocalypse and Business Models, IT, Architecture, Cynefin). I also alluded to the possibility that the time it takes IT to traverse this cycle is rapidly dropping...which may be one reason the whole Explore-Exploit contrast is getting more attention.
Anyway, I just ran across an OSCON (July 2010) presentation by Simon Wardley entitled "Situation Normal, Everything Must Change") that covers much of the same ground...though in a far more entertaining fashion. Highly recommended (even though I'm not a big fan of the "flashing/slashing graphics" style of presentation).
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