Techno-Apocalypse

Clay Shirky sparked a fair amount of dialogue about the dangers of what he called "Complex Business Models" in a recent post. This is an important topic that is not discussed enough, so I was happy to see him take a shot at it.

My snap reaction was that he was describing a dynamic that is (a) becoming commonplace, and (b) accelerating. This dynamic consists of the following:

• A concept/technology emerges.
• An almost "one-of-a-kind" capability is built (e.g., IBM's Stretch computer). This capability is tightly coupled internally, and certain aspects of it are not well understood.
• If the capability becomes more available (e.g., cheaper), fault lines in the internally coupling begin to emerge (e.g., plug-compatible peripherals). At this point, variations of the capability are created and adapted to different specific needs/uses (e.g., IBM 360).
• If the capability moves toward a mass market, key coupling fault lines will be institutionalized via de facto or de jure standards, and the capability will be built of interoperable components (e.g., IBM PC).
• Finally, these interoperable components and standards will provide much of the raw material for the creation of a new concept/technology (e.g., what has become the Web), starting the process all over.

The risk Clay discusses is real during the tightly-coupled phase of this dynamic. And, his concerns are becoming increasingly valid as (a) these loops are being traversed faster and faster for IT-intensive capabilities, (b) the interoperable components/standards ecosystem grows at an exponential rate, and (c) the transparency of a capability's structure (which allows critical dependencies to be seen clearly) decreases exponentially, at least during the tightly-coupled phase.